Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.914872 1.067321 1.236922 1.439554 1.675060 1.940162 2.261289
2025-01-05 0.643202 0.838000 1.079159 1.399521 1.813969 2.332216 3.030003
2025-01-12 0.494615 0.696535 0.966021 1.351721 1.889649 2.613683 3.663428
2025-01-19 0.398096 0.597334 0.880034 1.309976 1.947411 2.858232 4.260568
2025-01-26 0.345500 0.547634 0.850016 1.334636 2.092023 3.231407 5.078764
2025-02-02 0.319220 0.531331 0.863942 1.422481 2.337299 3.777940 6.223592
2025-02-09 0.288571 0.502315 0.852252 1.465527 2.513991 4.235540 7.283303
2025-02-16 0.258921 0.469834 0.829222 1.484509 2.650189 4.639685 8.301290
2025-02-23 0.231020 0.435853 0.798198 1.483836 2.749668 4.989623 9.264543
2025-03-02 0.205545 0.402337 0.762994 1.469768 2.821195 5.295564 10.182280
2025-03-09 0.185710 0.376436 0.737898 1.470166 2.917634 5.654779 11.238409
2025-03-16 0.162386 0.340400 0.688818 1.417538 2.904662 5.805222 11.908901
2025-03-23 0.157389 0.341104 0.712360 1.513795 3.201817 6.596719 13.963782
2025-03-30 0.138871 0.311149 0.670566 1.471307 3.211812 6.820789 14.895938
2025-04-06 0.122185 0.282691 0.628000 1.421066 3.197990 6.992414 15.736555
2025-04-13 0.108224 0.258267 0.590783 1.377197 3.191513 7.177078 16.626269
2025-04-20 0.101176 0.248705 0.585045 1.403112 3.343894 7.724061 18.394009
2025-04-27 0.099317 0.251154 0.606828 1.495424 3.660564 8.674908 21.209986
2025-05-04 0.094403 0.245448 0.608785 1.540658 3.871333 9.407073 23.600236
2025-05-11 0.088394 0.236143 0.600878 1.560606 4.022883 10.016950 25.769053
2025-05-18 0.081834 0.224477 0.585614 1.559898 4.122339 10.511574 27.710311
2025-05-25 0.075200 0.211690 0.565898 1.545114 4.183804 10.919119 29.480016
2025-06-01 0.069922 0.201861 0.552593 1.545534 4.285136 11.439170 31.609020